(AFP) – Donald Trump’s grip on Republican voters faces its latest high-stakes test Tuesday as his handpicked candidates fight knife-edge primary runoffs after a losing streak and sagging poll numbers that have dulled the US president’s kingmaker shine. Ten Trump-endorsed candidates have been beaten in Republican contests this cycle — six in August alone — matching the combined total from the 2018, 2020 and 2024 primaries, according to CNN. The setbacks come as Trump’s own political standing has deteriorated, with recent polling putting his approval rating at record lows.
Trump, evidently sensitive to suggestions that his influence is ebbing, insisted on social media Sunday that his endorsements were “stronger than ever.” “The few that lost were done out of loyalty,” he wrote, arguing that some had faced almost impossible races but were “good people” he felt obliged to support. The sharpest test comes in deeply Republican South Carolina, where Trump-backed Senator Darline Graham faces congressman Ralph Norman in a runoff for the seat held for 23 years by her late brother Lindsey Graham. Graham, a political novice appointed to complete her brother’s term after his death in July, led the first round two weeks ago with about 33 percent of the vote, against Norman’s 25 percent, but failed to secure the majority needed to avoid a runoff.
Her campaign has since stumbled, notably when she acknowledged during a debate that she was “not that informed on national security” while answering a question about Taiwan. Trump has responded with an unusually heavy investment of political capital, traveling to South Carolina to campaign for Graham and holding a telephone rally on the eve of the vote.
The Trump-supporting MAGA Inc. political organization has also spent more than $827,000 on voter calls and text messages — a rare deployment of its reserves in this year’s primaries. “So what I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot,” Trump told supporters at a rally Friday. Norman, a veteran conservative and member of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, supports much of Trump’s agenda but has occasionally defied Republican leaders and backed Nikki Haley rather than Trump in the 2024 presidential primary. Late polling showed the runoff essentially tied. NBC elections analyst Steve Kornacki wrote that “it is the candidate’s own name that could really matter in this primary runoff race, with Trump’s enduring clout with his base at stake.” But he added that Graham’s position heading into the runoff was “anything but secure.”
Trump’s influence is also being tested in Oklahoma, another Republican stronghold, where his favored candidate Mike Mazzei faces state attorney general Gentner Drummond for the party’s gubernatorial nomination. Drummond narrowly finished ahead of Mazzei in the first round in June, with both taking around a quarter of the vote. More than $9 million has since been spent on the runoff, according to US media. Trump has repeatedly attacked Drummond as a “fake Republican,” in part because the attorney general opposed a proposed $4 billion aluminum smelter backed by the president, arguing that the project could damage local land and communities. Mazzei, a wealthy former state senator, publicly embraced the project shortly before Trump endorsed him.
Victories in either state would help Trump steady a primary record battered by recent defeats in Florida, Wyoming, Minnesota and Tennessee, among others. Losses in both would add to questions over whether Republican voters remain as willing to take his direction when Trump himself is not on the ballot. – Frankie TAGGART
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