(AFP) – Republicans are pouring close to $900 million into advertising in the final six weeks of the US midterm elections, betting that record-breaking spending can offset a political climate that has turned sharply against them. The midterms, held halfway through a president’s four-year term, decide control of Congress and many state governorships, and could shape how much of his agenda Donald Trump is able to push through in his final two years in office.
Between now and Election Day on November 3, Republicans and their allies have booked around $888 million of advertising, against roughly $666 million for Democrats, according to AdImpact, a firm that tracks political advertising. Yet Trump’s approval rating has plummeted into the low 30s, and his Republicans, who control the House and Senate, are trailing badly in the congressional polls. The result is an unusual final stretch, with one party enjoying the political wind at its back, and the other with far deeper pockets.
“Money matters, and Democrats shouldn’t dismiss a $200 million-plus advertising gap,” said Caroline Welles, a political consultant who spent seven years at the Democratic National Committee. “But money is not a reset button for the political environment, especially this late in an election.”
– Unlimited sums –
Even by American standards, the sums are eye-watering. AdImpact and Kinetiq Political Insights project that around $12 billion will be spent on advertising across the 2025-26 election cycle. That is more than in any previous US election, including the 2024 presidential race. One reason is that US law places few limits on independent groups, as long as they do not coordinate directly with candidates. The biggest, known as “super PACs,” can raise unlimited sums from wealthy individuals and corporations.
The race for California governor gives a sense of the staggering scale. Around $330 million was spent in the primary alone, the first-round vote to pick candidates. That is more than two and a half times the total spent at Britain’s 2024 general election, in a country with nearly twice California’s population. Much of the Republican advantage comes from super PACs. MAGA Inc, the main group backing Trump, entered September with nearly $416 million in the bank.
The gap between the national parties is just as stark. The Republican National Committee had around $126 million at the end of August. Its Democratic counterpart had about $17 million in cash but slightly more than that in debt. And Republicans have the bigger advertising budget in eight of the nine most competitive Senate races, according to AdImpact. The imbalance is sharpest in Texas, where Republicans expect to spend up to $200 million against James Talarico.
The Democrat is leading the polling average in a state Trump won by almost 14 points in 2024 — but is now being outspent by about five to one, according to the Texas Tribune. “Republicans own the airwaves, and House Democrats can’t afford to fight back,” said Mike Marinella, spokesman for the Republicans’ House campaign committee.
– Money versus mood –
US rules require broadcasters to sell airtime to candidates at their lowest rates, a discount not available to super PACs. Republican candidates have generally relied more on outside groups and raised less from direct contributions than their rivals, so a Democratic dollar can sometimes buy considerably more airtime. The Republican spending spree also shows how difficult the terrain has become. Voter anger over living costs and the prolonged war with Iran has forced the party to spend heavily in states such as Texas, Iowa, and Ohio that it would normally expect to hold comfortably.
And with early voting already underway in some states, late spending has fewer chances to change minds, Welles said. She pointed out that Republican national committees outraised their Democratic counterparts in both 2006 and 2018, yet Democrats gained 31 House seats in the first of those elections and 41 in the second. Democrats nonetheless fear being swamped. Political strategist Mike Fahey said the Republican advantage could matter most in close races where voters know little about either candidate. “A national mood can create an opportunity,” he said. “But individual House and Senate races are still fought candidate by candidate and market by market.”
– Frankie TAGGART
© 2024 AFP
