Pensacola (United States) (AFP) – Hurricane Isaias’s outer bands were lashing the US Gulf Coast with heavy rain and strong winds Friday, with the category 3 storm triggering mandatory evacuations and poised to bring life-threatening storm surge when it makes landfall tonight. Isaias is the first hurricane of an Atlantic season that kicked off in June, held in check by a historic El Nino phenomenon that typically spurs more major storms in the Pacific. Fueled by record-warm Gulf waters heated by climate change, it underwent rapid intensification, and is set to become the first hurricane to strike the US mainland since Milton in 2024.
Caravans of trucks equipped with extendable booms and man-carrying buckets were rolling through the cities of Pensacola and Navarre to staging areas in preparation for power outages, AFP reporters on the scene said. Local businesses were closed and water service to buildings was suspended. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Isaias was packing maximum sustained winds of 115 miles (185 kilometers) per hour, and was located about 90 miles south of Pensacola. Forecasters expect Isaias to slam into the western Florida panhandle at or near major hurricane strength before weakening over land. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis told a press briefing it was expected to make landfall around 11:00 pm (0400 GMT). “We’ve got a massive amount of supplies and personnel ready to respond once the storm hits,” he said, urging people to keep their own supplies of fuel, water, and non-perishable food.
President Donald Trump cancelled his visit to Saturday’s college football game between the University of Georgia and the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Alabama because of Hurricane Isaias. Mandatory evacuation orders are in effect in several Florida counties, but impacts are expected across a swathe of the southeastern United States, with hurricane-force winds up to 100 miles inland. Storm surge combined with the tide is expected to flood normally dry areas, with the NHC warning that water could reach as high as nine feet around the Alabama-Florida border. Heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding and push rivers over their banks. Two airports in northwestern Florida have suspended operations.
– Late arrival – Isaias’s late arrival is largely due to an El Nino of historic strength. El Nino, the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), creates strong vertical wind shear over the Atlantic that tends to tear storms apart. “We have been seeing basically nearly record strong shear throughout the Atlantic Basin this year, and that is consistent with what we’d expect to see with a strong El Nino event,” Michael Fischer of the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, told AFP. In the Pacific, it has the opposite effect, weakening shear and allowing storms to grow. The Pacific has already produced several hurricanes this year, some of which hit maximum category 5 strength.
“Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are in record territory because of fossil fuel-driven climate change,” Marc Alessi, a climate scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, told AFP. “Isaias was able to tap into all of that energy in the ocean to develop into a major hurricane.” According to an analysis by nonprofit Climate Central, waters in the Gulf of Mexico are about 1.4C above the pre-industrial average, and Isaias “formed over waters that were 600 times more likely to be that temperature because of climate change,” Kristina Dahl, the group’s vice president for science, told AFP. Storm surge will also be worsened because climate change has raised sea levels by around 6.5 inches in this region, so the surge acts on a higher base, said Dahl. Heavy rainfall is also linked to warming since warmer oceans and atmosphere allow hurricanes to carry more moisture.
Isaias has disrupted oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, with platforms and rigs evacuated. As of Friday, about 71 percent of the region’s oil production had been temporarily halted, taking nearly 1.5 million barrels a day off the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration (MMA). About 59 percent of gas production was also suspended.
© 2024 AFP
