“Trump believes that he is the answer to all the Republicans’ woes, and is rushing to tell everyone who will listen,” Peter Loge, director of George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs, told AFP. At a rare Republican Party midterms convention in Dallas in September, Trump admitted as much. “Pretend I’m on the ballot, just one more time,” the second-term president said.

– ‘Historically unpopular’ –

By turning the 2028 midterms into a referendum on his presidency, Trump is counting on his own history of political upsets, from his shock 2016 election win to the 2024 comeback. The problem this time is that Trump’s own approval rating has hit record lows in recent polls, and is the lowest for any president heading into midterm elections since 1946. “On balance Donald Trump’s presence in campaigns will probably hurt Republicans — partly because the president’s party always does badly in the midterms, but also because he’s historically unpopular,” said Loge. Trump may get his base to the polls, but there are “not enough of those dedicated Trump voters to make a difference.”

With Republicans fearing they could lose control of both the House and the Senate in a Democratic “blue wave,” there have been increasing signs of desperation. Trump has changed his plans to repeatedly rally in states that once seemed solidly Republican red, particularly Texas. And he says he expects to spend $400 million in campaign cash on the midterms.

– Harsh rhetoric –

The desperation has spilled into Trump’s rhetoric. As the campaign has worn on, Trump has peppered his freewheeling rallies with ever more polarizing and violent language. He has branded Abdul El-Sayed, the Muslim, left-wing Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, a “jihadist,” used anti-trans slurs against another Democrat, called Democrats communists, and stepped up his diatribes against the media. That’s when he’s not veering off into bizarre tangents. In recent days, for example, he has obsessed about both men’s and women’s behinds, from Ohio Senator Jon Husted to rapper Nicki Minaj.

But while diehard supporters may cheer Trump’s raucous speeches, ordinary Republicans may be turned off. And even if they can’t stomach switching to Democrats, they may simply stay at home.

– More money, more problems –

Billionaire Trump’s other strategy is to throw money at the problem — but only if Republicans win. He has promised a $5,000 dividend for every adult American if Republicans keep control of Congress — despite questions about whether it would be legal and how he would fund the $1 trillion cost. Yet polls show most Americans doubt that they will ever get the $5,000 payments. Trump is also offering goodies for voters hit by high fuel costs from the Iran war, including bailouts for farmers and easing sanctions on Canada to help border towns.

But Trump’s efforts to bring down oil costs have had mixed results. His Iran war has stalled, but he is widely reported to be considering fresh strikes with Israel after the midterms. A diesel deal with Russia has meanwhile sparked accusations that Trump is selling out Ukraine.

Trump’s most important midterms strategy may be what he does afterwards. Questions are already mounting about whether he will challenge a midterms loss like he did in the 2020 presidential election. Trump on Monday announced $1 million rewards for information leading to vote fraud convictions, and last week he ordered a preemptive lawsuit to block the Alaska Senate result if the Republican incumbent loses. “I’m skeptical that President Trump will go quiet into that good night,” said Loge.

– Danny KEMP

© 2024 AFP

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Asked by reporters after voting about corruption as a major issue for voters, Trump insisted that it was happening in districts and cities controlled by Democrats. “You ought to look at the real corruption — it’s Democrat corruption,” he said. The Republican billionaire, who has consistently refused to accept his defeat in the 2020 presidential election, baselessly alleging widespread voter fraud, reiterated allegations along those lines Saturday. “I ran and I won in 2016, and I won in 2020, too, but it didn’t work out that way,” he said at the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections office in West Palm Beach. “It was a rigged election, but I won by millions of votes.”

With 10 days to go until the midterms, which traditionally favor the party outside the White House, Trump faces dismal polls suggesting the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate. Without a Republican majority in Congress, the 80-year-old president would have little room to push through his legislative agenda during his final two years in office. He or his staff could also face numerous congressional investigations by Democrats, who have said they want to examine business dealings conducted by the president and those close to him through the family’s holding company since his return to the White House.

© 2024 AFP

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The 57-year-old, once a senior advisor to Britain’s prime minister David Cameron, moved stateside in search of the “California dream” before becoming a US citizen in 2021. Now he’s in a longshot quest to replace Gavin Newsom, the outgoing Democratic governor of one of the bluest US states. But according to Hilton, Newsom has left California in shambles. The candidate told AFP he aims to allow “people to follow their dreams again” without “a bloated, nanny-state bureaucratic government that charges people too much money for services that are the worst in the country.”

But Hilton must carry with him a glaring liability in California, where registered Democrats nearly outnumber Republicans two to one: an endorsement from President Donald Trump. The president has dwindling approval ratings, and Hilton must walk a tightrope, appealing to the six million voters who voted for Trump in 2024 while also convincing anti-Trump Californians to vote Republican under the banner of change. “Donald Trump has been a huge drag on the Republican Party in California,” Thad Kousser, a politics professor at the state university’s San Diego campus, told AFP.

Trump hasn’t taken pains to appeal to voters in the most US populous state, recently glibly suggesting Iran could “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego. Asked whether he stood with backlash, Hilton sidestepped, emphasizing how much he himself loves Los Angeles and intends to “revive” it. “I didn’t ask for the endorsement. I was surprised to get it, very honored to get it,” Hilton said. “We share the view that where possible you should keep the government bureaucracy under control.” But Hilton said he disagrees with the president on “many things,” including Trump’s false claims he won the 2020 election.

– ‘Rebel spirit’ – The candidate insists voters can cast their ballots for him and still be anti-Trump. Hilton said he’s an “outsider” who can channel California’s “rebel spirit” to make the state more business-friendly with less regulation. Trump’s war on Iran has seen global energy prices skyrocket. But in California, one of the country’s most expensive places to live, Hilton argues that red tape and taxes are most to blame for the soaring cost of living.

He’s cast his Democratic opponent, Xavier Becerra, as at best uninspiring. Critics including Hilton say the likely victor is overreliant on the mere fact that he is a Democrat. Yet Californian loyalty to Democrats is “earned,” analyst Kousser said. The party’s label “comes with a set of policies that are strong and popular in California,” including healthcare expansion, protections for immigrants, and environmental regulations. Trump’s policies run counter to all of these efforts. Hilton has vied to downplay those issues, instead emphasizing economic promises that include eliminating California’s gas tax and scrapping state income taxes on earnings under $150,000. Critics have cast such promises as gimmicks that have not faced scrutiny because he is not expected to win, added Kousser. “Being the underdog has given him the freedom to take some big swings.”

– ‘Impossible things happen’ – California’s most recent Republican governor was “The Terminator” actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who served from 2003 to 2011. “You would need Arnold Schwarzenegger, the power of his celebrity and his funding, for a Republican to separate their brand from Donald Trump’s,” Kousser said. Despite his energetic campaigning, Hilton is simply not that. Recent polling from Emerson College saw Becerra with a 27-point lead over Hilton.

But at a weekend rally of a few hundred people, Hilton told stories in his British accent of lifelong Democrats who were ready to vote for him, even as he acknowledged he was behind. “This is America. This is California,” he said. “Of course we can make impossible things happen!”

– Maggy DONALDSON

© 2024 AFP

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**The arithmetic**

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the upper chamber of Congress. A 50-50 tie would leave Republicans in charge through Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. All 435 House seats are contested. With 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one Republican-aligned independent, and two vacancies, Democrats need at least 218 seats in the new lower chamber for a majority. Unlike the Senate, the House battle is spread across dozens of districts rather than a handful of statewide contests.

**Senate: eight battlegrounds**

– **North Carolina:** Former Democratic governor Roy Cooper faces Republican operative Michael Whatley in a bid to flip the seat vacated by the retirement of Thom Tillis, a vocal Republican Trump critic. Strong polling for Cooper has prompted both parties to shift some spending elsewhere, but the contest remains key for Democrats.

– **Texas:** Democrat James Talarico, a Christian progressive, faces Trump-backed Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose controversies have helped turn a longtime Republican stronghold into a closely watched contest. Paxton retains a loyal conservative following and enormous outside financial support.

– **Ohio:** Former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown seeks a comeback against Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace Vance. Among the country’s most expensive races, it’s also a test of whether economic discontent can shift a state that has moved sharply rightward.

– **Maine:** Republican Susan Collins faces former state Senate leader Troy Jackson. She has repeatedly survived difficult elections in a state that votes Democratic for president.

– **Alaska:** Former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola challenges Republican Daniel Sullivan. Her strong standing among voters has made another Trump-voting state unexpectedly competitive.

– **Iowa:** Republican congresswoman Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek compete for retiring Republican senator Joni Ernst’s seat, while soaring agricultural and energy costs are prominent issues.

– **Kansas:** Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton is challenging Republican Roger Marshall in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. Tight polling has prompted Trump to campaign for Marshall.

– **Michigan:** An important Republican pickup opportunity pits former congressman Mike Rogers against progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed to fill retiring Democratic senator Gary Peters’ seat.

**The House: watch the suburbs**

– **New York’s 17th district:** Republican Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley in a Hudson Valley seat won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

– **Nebraska’s 2nd:** Republican Don Bacon’s retirement leaves a competitive Omaha-area seat contested by Republican Brinker Harding and Democrat Denise Powell.

– **Pennsylvania:** Republican incumbents Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan, and Scott Perry face closely watched Democratic challenges. Nearby New Jersey’s 7th district, where Rebecca Bennett challenges Republican Tom Kean Jr., is also in play.

– **Virginia’s 2nd:** Democrat Elaine Luria is seeking to reclaim the coastal seat she lost to Republican Jennifer Kiggans in 2022.

– **Iowa:** Three Republican-held districts in the east and center of the state could provide an early indication of whether Democrats are making broad gains.

**Governors: another test of Republican strength**

Governors do not determine control of Congress, but 36 states are electing them, with several unusually competitive contests. In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa is challenging three-term Republican incumbent Greg Abbott, while Iowa pits Democrat Rob Sand against Republican Zach Lahn. In Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton faces Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, while Nevada’s Republican governor Joe Lombardo is defending his office against Democratic attorney general Aaron Ford.

**Under the radar: signs of a wave?**

For an indication of the scale of any Democratic advance, watch two Republican-held Virginia house districts: the 1st, where Shannon Taylor challenges Robert Wittman, and the 5th, where former congressman Tom Perriello wants to unseat John McGuire. A Democratic gain in Kentucky’s Republican-leaning 6th district, or unexpected defeats for Republicans in Florida’s 13th and Wisconsin’s 1st, would likewise signal a particularly broad electoral swing. Conversely, Democrats face dangers of their own in redrawn districts, including Alabama’s 2nd, where Shomari Figures is defending his seat, and Texas’s 34th, where Vicente Gonzalez faces Republican Eric Flores.

– Frankie TAGGART

© 2024 AFP

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“Please pretend that I am on the ballot,” the 80-year-old leader, wearing a red cap, told the crowd Wednesday in Bullhead City, Arizona.

— Nostalgia for 2024 —

In 2024, he got nearly 78 percent of the vote in the county where he was speaking in Arizona. The other two counties he visited, in Alaska and Montana, also gave him decisive victories over Democrat Kamala Harris. Donald Trump makes no secret of his preference for traveling to friendly territory, telling reporters that he wants to “pay my respect” to supporters. “We brought back the spirit” of the 2024 presidential campaign, he declared. It is difficult to judge. Each appearance drew committed supporters, the core of his MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement, who are apparently willing to forgive him for soaring fuel prices as well as the war in Iran.

“The country needs to be a little bit more patient,” Theresa Hallesy told AFP on Wednesday in Montana. “There’s a lot of stuff going on in the world that he can’t control, but he still has to deal with it. I think we’re going in the right direction.” The 68-year-old retiree waited more than seven hours for Trump to make his entrance into a large rodeo arena commandeered for the occasion.

The American president is rallying support for his party, but he seemed almost reluctant to invite local candidates to join him onstage during the tour.

— ‘One minute’ —

“I want you just to come up for one minute because we don’t want to hear you for two minutes, three minutes, just one minute,” he told Andy Biggs, a conservative seeking to become governor of Arizona. The Republican leader always has one or two announcements tailored to each region. In Alaska on Tuesday, at a hockey rink converted into a rally venue, he laid out his climate-skeptic arguments. In a state whose economy is closely tied to fossil fuels, Trump promoted a major liquefied natural gas project. He also issued presidential pardons for two auto mechanics who were convicted of modifying diesel engines to circumvent emissions regulations.

At each rally, Donald Trump promised that every American will receive $5,000 if Republicans retain their majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. How this highly controversial proposal, criticized by the opposition, would be funded remains unclear. Yet rather than an electoral offensive, his rallies give the impression of a final tour for a show whose star performer and audience are already feeling nostalgic.

— Qatari jet —

In Montana, thousands of enthusiastic supporters laughed at a now-familiar impersonation of French President Emmanuel Macron and gave Trump a standing ovation as he left the stage, dancing to the ever-present strains of “YMCA.” In Arizona, the billionaire delighted the audience with a flyover by the new presidential aircraft, a lavish gift from Qatar. Onstage, he joked about the present, estimated to be worth $400 million: “You know, when you are given gifts, you take them, right?” The joke fell somewhat flat with the audience in a district where both the poverty rate and the unemployment rate are significantly above the national average.

The Republican leader then spoke regretfully about the approaching end of his term, saying he has resigned himself to it in “two-and-a-half years. Now a little less than that, sadly.” “I said that yesterday and they started screaming, ‘Four more years! Four more years!'” Trump continued. He paused. He waited. The audience eventually took the cue, and a few voices broke into the chant, “Four more years! Four more years!” — without much conviction.

– Aurélia END

© 2024 AFP

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“I would say equal,” Trump told reporters at the White House when asked which chamber would be harder for Republicans to defend in the November 3 vote. Trump acknowledged the historical disadvantage facing the party of a sitting president, although he insisted that enthusiasm among Republican voters was surging.

“When you have a sitting president… no matter how good they seem to be, they’re at a big disadvantage, tremendous disadvantage,” he said. “But I’m doing a tour right now, and I’m doing rallies. The level of enthusiasm for the Republican Party is way up.”

Trump’s assessment was striking because Republicans have been widely seen as particularly vulnerable in the House, while the Senate’s electoral map had initially offered them greater hopes of retaining control. Election forecaster Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 77 percent chance of winning the 435-seat House, projecting that they will take 235 seats to the Republicans’ 200. It also narrowly favors Democrats to capture the 100-seat Senate, giving them a 56 percent probability of victory and projecting a 51-49 majority.

Losing either chamber on November 3 would complicate Trump’s ability to push his agenda through Congress during the final two years of his presidency, while handing Democrats greater power to investigate his administration. Trump has embarked on a campaign blitz in the closing weeks of the election, including rallies in traditionally Republican states where his party faces unexpectedly competitive Senate races.

History offers little comfort to the president. The party holding the White House has almost invariably lost seats in midterm elections, with just three exceptions in the House since 1934, according to figures compiled by the American Presidency Project. Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Democrats gained nine House seats in 1934, while Bill Clinton’s party picked up four in 1998 and George W. Bush’s Republicans gained eight in 2002.

The worst modern midterm drubbing came in 1938, when Roosevelt’s Democrats lost 72 House seats, followed by Barack Obama’s Democrats losing 63 in 2010. Trump himself presided over a split verdict in his first midterms in 2018, when Republicans lost 41 House seats but gained two in the Senate.

© 2024 AFP

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With a theatrical flourish, Vance descended from the steps of Air Force Two, the vice presidential jet, and received a rapturous reception as he entered the event in a flag-draped airport hangar. “Man, it feels good to be home,” Vance said to cheers. Unusually for Vance on the campaign trail, he then went down to greet the crowd in person — shaking hands, patting arms, and meeting the lady with the black pro-Vance hat.

There’s just one problem for Vance: the midterms themselves. Polls show Trump’s unpopularity, the Iran war, and the price of living could cost Republicans their majority in Congress. And Ohio — which voted for Trump in the last three presidential elections — has turned from a stronghold into one of the tightest electoral battlegrounds for the November 3 vote.

**- ‘Nothing to do with 2028’ -**

There are nail-biting races for Vance’s old senate seat, currently held by Jon Husted, and for the governorship of Ohio, where former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is standing. In a sign of Republican concerns, Vance’s visit comes days after Trump traveled to the state, and the 80-year-old president is due back there next week. For Trump, losing control of Congress could mean he spends his last two years in office battling multiple Democrat-led investigations. For Vance, losing Ohio could seriously damage a political brand that was largely built on the blue-collar roots in the state described in his bestselling memoir “Hillbilly Elegy.”

“Well, look, I think it has nothing to do with 2028,” he insisted to reporters when asked how important it was to win Ohio for Republicans as he looked to a presidential run. “It has to do with how we’re going to govern our country over the next two years, the next 10 years.” Despite Vance’s comments, the race for 2028 will effectively start the day after the midterms. While Vance is widely considered the frontrunner to be Trump’s heir, he’s made no announcement yet and it’s far from a done deal.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said he won’t run against Vance but his speech on western civilization against the backdrop of the Acropolis in Athens was widely seen as a pitch for the job.

**- Family man -**

There is a growing buzz around the youthful vice president. Like any good candidate, Vance is increasingly bringing his family on the stump. The 42-year-old took his wife Usha, three of their four children, and their dog Atlas on Air Force Two for the flight to Cincinnati, where Vance cast an early vote for the midterms. Vance is also raising money. His role as the finance chair of the Republican National Committee puts him at the center of a nexus of wealthy donors.

Politically, Vance is quietly trying to exorcise the vice president’s curse of being tied to the policies of the outgoing president — one that Kamala Harris suffered from in 2024. His speeches have subtly positioned him as more conscious of the financial woes of US families, even as Trump dismisses what he calls the “affordability hoax.” Staking out his own positions also helps counter the idea that Vance is a political shape-shifter — he once compared Trump to Hitler before becoming his vice president.

The recent Catholic convert on Friday sought to distance himself from another key administration figure, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth, over the announcement that a US military firing squad execution would be livestreamed. “I’ve seen these announcements. I don’t know that that’s going to happen,” Vance told an AFP reporter traveling with him on Friday, adding that if it was going to be “through livestream, I’m not going to be watching it.”

– Danny KEMP

© 2024 AFP

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It has been a tough year for farmers like Schacht, who are a crucial base of political support for Republicans pushing to retain control of Congress in November’s midterm elections. Ohio, where Schacht and his wife Lisa are based, is becoming a battleground for key Senate and House races too, despite Trump’s double-digit win in the state in 2024. There, rising expenses are squeezing voters while data centers spark backlash.

In the fields, the cost of diesel needed to run combines as farmers start harvesting soybeans, corn, and other crops this month has skyrocketed more than 67 percent since February. Schacht said some fertilizers he needs for the next planting season have doubled in price. This comes as Tehran maintains a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global energy and fertilizer transit. It launched the blockage in response to US-Israel strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader as the conflict started February 28, and both sides remain locked in war.

Schacht expects many farmers who support Trump would “stay the course” by backing Republicans. “I’m not going to change,” said the 69-year-old. But people are growing “tense,” feeling that “this wasn’t what I expected.”

– ‘Not just a catchphrase’ –

Despite Washington’s efforts to “make sure Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons,” including by bombing nuclear sites in mid-2025, “it just keeps going and going,” Schacht said. Commodity prices have risen about 20 percent this year, far less than fuel and fertilizer costs. “We just have to bite the bullet. I’m not going to just leave the crop in the field,” he added.

His wife Lisa, 67, told AFP that farmers who support Republicans have reasons beyond economics. “They still have a strong belief that ‘Make America Great Again’ is not just a catchphrase,” she said. She pointed to a desire to boost domestic production in agriculture and other sectors, alongside a wish to propagate “family values” and liberties. In 2024, Trump won 78 percent of the vote in farming-dependent counties.

– ‘Flailing away’ –

The question is whether cost woes will cause Republican supporters to sit out this time. “There are farmers really flailing away” and drastically concerned about fuel costs, Joe Logan, interim president of the Ohio Farmers Union, told AFP. Escalations in the Middle East war came ahead of planting and harvest seasons, both periods of intensive fuel usage.

“Most farmers have been living on a very thin edge of profitability,” said Logan, 77, himself a soybean, corn, and wheat farmer. The conflict with Iran is just the latest blow to farmers already buffeted by Trump’s trade war with China in his first presidency and low crop prices. Farm bankruptcies jumped 46 percent from 2024 to 2025, with the Midwest outpacing other regions, on lower revenue and rising expenses.

Logan estimates about 40 percent of US soybeans are exported, with China traditionally a key buyer. But tit-for-tat tariffs between the world’s two biggest economies caused billions in US agriculture export losses between 2018 and 2019. “Once we’ve pulled the rug out from underneath that relationship, it’s really difficult to build it back,” Logan said, pointing to strong competition from producers like Brazil and Argentina.

Trump’s spiraling trade conflict with Ottawa is adding to worries, as Canada is a top supplier of potash needed as fertilizer in the United States. Many farmers are “seriously worried” about the availability of potassium and compounds over the next year, Logan said. “What is likely to happen is that we won’t see a groundswell of all those people going to vote for Democrats,” he said. Instead, he expects: “What we will see is a lot of those folks saying, ‘I’m not as enthusiastic about Mr. Trump and the Republicans as I used to be. I’m just going to stay home.'”

– Beiyi SEOW

© 2024 AFP

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Yet Trump’s approval rating has plummeted into the low 30s and his Republicans, who control the House and Senate, are trailing badly in the congressional polls. The result is an unusual final stretch, with one party enjoying the political wind at its back, and the other with far deeper pockets. “Money matters, and Democrats shouldn’t dismiss a $200 million-plus advertising gap,” said Caroline Welles, a political consultant who spent seven years at the Democratic National Committee. “But money is not a reset button for the political environment, especially this late in an election.”

– Unlimited sums –

Even by American standards, the sums are eye-watering. AdImpact and Kinetiq Political Insights project that around $12 billion will be spent on advertising across the 2025-26 election cycle. That is more than in any previous US election, including the 2024 presidential race. One reason is that US law places few limits on independent groups, as long as they do not coordinate directly with candidates. The biggest, known as “super PACs”, can raise unlimited sums from wealthy individuals and corporations.

The race for California governor gives a sense of the staggering scale. Around $330 million was spent in the primary alone, the first-round vote to pick candidates. That is more than two and a half times the total spent at Britain’s 2024 general election, in a country with nearly twice California’s population. Much of the Republican advantage comes from super PACs. MAGA Inc, the main group backing Trump, entered September with nearly $416 million in the bank.

The gap between the national parties is just as stark. The Republican National Committee had around $126 million at the end of August. Its Democratic counterpart had about $17 million in cash but slightly more than that in debt. And Republicans have the bigger advertising budget in eight of the nine most competitive Senate races, according to AdImpact. The imbalance is sharpest in Texas, where Republicans expect to spend up to $200 million against James Talarico. The Democrat is leading the polling average in a state Trump won by almost 14 points in 2024 — but is now being outspent by about five to one, according to the Texas Tribune. “Republicans own the airwaves, and House Democrats can’t afford to fight back,” said Mike Marinella, spokesman for the Republicans’ House campaign committee.

– Money versus mood –

US rules require broadcasters to sell airtime to candidates at their lowest rates, a discount not available to super PACs. Republican candidates have generally relied more on outside groups and raised less from direct contributions than their rivals, so a Democratic dollar can sometimes buy considerably more airtime. The Republican spending spree also shows how difficult the terrain has become. Voter anger over living costs and the prolonged war with Iran has forced the party to spend heavily in states such as Texas, Iowa, and Ohio that it would normally expect to hold comfortably. And with early voting already under way in some states, late spending has fewer chances to change minds, Welles said.

She pointed out that Republican national committees outraised their Democratic counterparts in both 2006 and 2018, yet Democrats gained 31 House seats in the first of those elections and 41 in the second. Democrats nonetheless fear being swamped. Political strategist Mike Fahey said the Republican advantage could matter most in close races where voters know little about either candidate. “A national mood can create an opportunity,” he said. “But individual House and Senate races are still fought candidate by candidate and market by market.”

– Frankie TAGGART

© 2024 AFP

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A formerly loyal Florida representative last week released an ad warning Trump that his immigration crackdown had “gone too far” and that Hispanic voters “feel betrayed.” In Iowa, a Senate candidate called for the Iran war to be brought to an “immediate end,” saying voters were being squeezed by higher prices, while two House members switched votes to support limits on Trump’s ability to continue military action. Veteran political strategist Mike Fahey, who ran an independent presidential campaign in 2024, said the shifts were less about newfound ideological independence than “brand separation.”

“You’re seeing candidates create daylight on issues where the political pressure is greatest,” he told AFP. “The message isn’t necessarily ‘I’m against Trump.’ It’s ‘I’m my own person.'”

– Political bill –

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday put Trump’s approval rating at a new low of 32 percent, while Democrats led Republicans by eight points among registered voters asked which party they would support for Congress. Just 17 percent approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living and 34 percent of his handling of the Iran war. “The political bill is finally coming due,” said communications expert and former Washington lobbyist Kevin Mercuri. He told AFP Republicans had assumed voters would tolerate almost anything associated with Trump, but that calculation was colliding with the Iran war, high fuel prices and a broader affordability squeeze.

Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly urged supporters to behave as though his own name were on the November ballot. “You have to pretend I am on the ticket,” he told the Republican midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month. Yet several Republicans in difficult races stayed away from the gathering, including Maine Senator Susan Collins, while others have minimized their association with Trump online. California Representative Young Kim stripped “America First” branding and references to Trump from her campaign website after the primary. Similar changes have been reported in other competitive Republican campaigns.

Fahey said candidates still wanted Trump’s political organization and core supporters while needing to show independence to voters dissatisfied with his presidency. “Whether it works will depend largely on whether voters see the separation as authentic or as an election-year maneuver,” he said.

– Balancing act –

The breaks remain selective rather than wholesale. Hinson’s campaign website, for example, still prominently features Trump’s endorsement. The Republican National Committee told Politico candidates should run the races they need to run and that Trump understood when they had to add “nuance” to policy positions to win. But Trump has shown limits to his tolerance for dissent. Responding to Salazar’s immigration ad, he said he still supported her but added that she had become “a little bit soft on the border.”

Daniel Drezner, professor of International Politics at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, said Republicans did not want to be tied to Trump’s unfavorable ratings but warned that distancing themselves might not solve their problem. Such efforts “might alienate the MAGA base but not attract independents who are furious” with the party’s policy miscues, he said. For vulnerable Republicans, the strategy is less a wholesale repudiation of Trump than an attempt to persuade swing voters that they are their own political actors — without convincing Trump’s supporters that they have abandoned him.

“Voters mostly treat politics like plumbing. They just want it to work. If your sink leaks you hire a plumber to fix it, not to argue with you about gaskets or break the garage,” said Peter Loge, director of George Washington University’s School of Media. “Smart candidates are like good plumbers, they find and fix problems that matter.”

– Frankie TAGGART

© 2024 AFP

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