Washington (AFP) – Since Russia’s invasion three years ago, the United States and its allies have insisted that no decisions on Ukraine can take place without Ukraine. Donald Trump, in a single phone call to Vladimir Putin, shattered that. Trump also called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who acknowledged it was “not very pleasant” that Trump spoke first to the Russian leader and pleaded for US-Ukraine joint efforts before any negotiations.
But Trump has hailed a new spirit of cooperation with Putin, speaking of holding a summit with him in Saudi Arabia, as Russia trumpeted the call as a turning point from the international isolation over its invasion of Ukraine. “This is a major reversal. It looks like the US is going from being a major backer of Ukraine to trying to play more the role of neutral arbiter,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Former president Joe Biden said he saw little reason to speak to Putin after the Russian leader defied his warnings and invaded Ukraine in February 2022 in a war that has claimed tens of thousands of lives. Ukrainians grumbled that Biden was too slow in decisions on weapons that could have given them a battlefield advantage. With Trump’s return, “Ukraine is now focused not on winning but on not losing the war,” Bergmann said.
– ‘Much bigger’ than Ukraine – Russia has long sought direct negotiations with the United States about Ukraine. Before the invasion, Russia urged security guarantees including a rejection of Ukraine’s aspirations to enter NATO, the transatlantic alliance built on collective security guarantees. The Biden administration saw Russia’s stance as a red herring, noting that Putin after the invasion rejected Ukraine’s historical legitimacy. The Biden team said Ukraine should eventually — but not immediately — enter NATO.
Setting a different tone, Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, said it was unrealistic for Ukraine to enter NATO or regain all its land. Speaking before meeting NATO defense ministers in Brussels, Hegseth denied any “betrayal” of Ukraine and said the United States was “invested and interested in peace.” But David Salvo, a Russia expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said to expect Moscow to inject “poison pills” in any negotiations with the United States, perhaps making demands on the positioning of US forces in Europe. “That’s the fallacy that many Washington run into. They think Ukraine is just about Ukraine for the Russians. But it’s not — it’s much bigger than that,” he said. “Russia is trying to impose maximalist terms on the US not just about Ukraine, but also about the European security architecture,” he said.
– A ‘quick fix’? – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday called Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga. The State Department said Rubio voiced a commitment to “Ukrainian independence and stability” but notably did not say sovereignty or territorial integrity, points repeatedly stressed by the Biden team. Sybiga, on a visit to Paris, accused Russia of seeking another Yalta, referring to the summit by Soviet, US and British leaders on dividing up the post-World War II map.
Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, pointing to her country’s long history with Russia, warned against a “quick fix” and said Putin “has no intention to stop his expansionist pursuit.” “He will enter talks, enjoy the limelight and take whatever he possibly can without making any genuine concessions,” she wrote on social media. But Bill Taylor, who served twice as the top US diplomat in Ukraine including during Trump’s first term, said that direct US involvement could help avoid a pitfall of diplomacy a decade ago overseen by France and Germany. The Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, which had attempted to stop earlier fighting in Ukraine, put at the negotiating table Russian-backed separatists.
“In this upcoming negotiation, it will be the role of the United States to make it very clear where the responsibility for this war lies and how to end it — it is on, in the first instance, the entity that started the war, which is Russia,” he said. He said it would be crucial to involve Ukraine and give it leverage. He pointed to Vice President JD Vance’s meeting Friday in Munich with Zelensky as a positive sign. “If the Americans can play a role in bringing this war to an end in a just and lasting way, we should do that,” Taylor said.
© 2024 AFP
