(AFP) – A key US Federal Reserve official said Friday that he sees no need to rush to cut interest rates further, adding that challenges with data collection likely distorted recent inflation numbers.
In a CNBC interview, New York Fed President John Williams noted that government officials were unable to collect data on inflation in October and the first half of November. The government had undergone a record-long shutdown during that period. “Because of that, I think the data were distorted in some of the categories, and that pushed down the (consumer price index) reading probably by a 10th or so,” Williams added. “It’s hard to know.” He expects that inflation data for December will likely provide a better reading of the scale of this distortion.
His comments echoed warnings by economists Thursday after a delayed US consumer price index report indicated that inflation slowed to 2.7 percent in November, from 3.0 percent in September. Some analysts cautioned that a bigger proportion of price quotes were probably sourced during the Black Friday discount period. Williams pointed to this factor as well, adding on Friday: “That’s going to give you a bit of a downward bias.”
Asked how the inflation data influences his view on the path of interest rates, he said that monetary policy is well-positioned for officials to gather more information. “I don’t personally have a sense of urgency to need to act further on monetary policy right now,” he said. “I think the cuts we’ve made have positioned us really well.”
The Fed has made three consecutive interest rate cuts this year as the employment market weakened, but signaled that the bar is likely higher ahead. The central bank’s next policy meeting is scheduled for late January, and CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates an 80 percent expectation that rates will be kept unchanged after the gathering.
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