(AFP) – Israel and Iran exchanged more missile fire Monday as concerns that the United States might escalate the Middle East conflict by launching ground raids against the Islamic Republic’s Gulf islands sent oil prices soaring. Iran launched new strikes on a water desalination plant in Kuwait after its own electrical facilities came under attack at the weekend, cutting power to parts of Tehran. Saudi Arabia reported that it had intercepted five ballistic missiles.
The war has inflicted havoc on the global economy, resulting in fuel shortages across much of Asia, stock markets in turmoil, and oil prices soaring—the main US benchmark rising past $100 a barrel and UK-traded Brent up sharply, trading close to $117. With economies already reeling from recent energy price increases, and US President Donald Trump openly mulling a military operation to seize Iran’s main export terminal, market experts warned that any US ground operation or wider Iranian retaliation could send oil prices to historic highs.
Oil price surge – “If the US were to launch a ground invasion of Iran, possibly taking Kharg Island, or if Tehran were to intensify retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure or fully close the Strait, projections of $200 bbl oil will not be an otherworldly supposition anymore,” analyst Tamas Varga of PVM Energy stated. Oil has never cost more than $150 a barrel, last hitting record highs during the July 2008 commodity boom. However, the global benchmark Brent crude has risen in price by nearly 60 percent since the beginning of the war, and the US standard WTI by more than half.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump indicated his desire to “take the oil in Iran” and could seize the export hub of Kharg Island, comparing this to his raid on Venezuela, where the US plans to control the oil industry following the capture of leader Nicolas Maduro in January. Nevertheless, the US leader expressed confidence that there would soon be a negotiated end to the conflict, as Pakistan hosted regional foreign ministers for talks on the crisis.
As Israel pressed its offensive against Iran-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, hitting what an official told AFP was an army checkpoint and killing at least one Lebanese soldier, Indonesia confirmed one of its peacekeepers was killed after the UN force reported that a projectile hit one of its positions. Separately, the Israeli military reported that a soldier was killed on Sunday in combat in southern Lebanon, bringing the total number of troops killed since the fighting with Hezbollah began this month to six.
Diplomatic efforts – On the ground, there appeared to be no let-up in hostilities. Israel stated that its air defence batteries responded to “missiles launched from Iran,” after earlier announcing it was striking “terror regime military infrastructure across Tehran.” On the diplomatic front, Pakistan—acting as a go-between for Washington and Tehran—hosted foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt in Islamabad for discussions on the crisis.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Dar noted that the visiting diplomats had discussed how to “bring an early and permanent end to the war.” He stated that Iran and the United States had expressed confidence in Pakistan to facilitate the talks and mentioned that he had spoken to his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi as well as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and other foreign ministers who backed the idea. Nevertheless, the speaker of Iran’s parliament accused Washington of using diplomacy as a smokescreen. Despite making diplomatic overtures, including proposing a 15-point plan to end the war, the United States has also been sending more military assets into the region, including an amphibious assault ship carrying 3,500 Marines.
Sleepless nights – Iran confirmed that an Israeli strike last week had killed the commander of the naval force of the Revolutionary Guards, Alireza Tangsiri, whom Israel had declared responsible for Tehran’s operation to block the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic. The weeks of strikes have also taken a heavy toll on ordinary people in Iran. “I miss a peaceful night’s sleep,” an artist in Tehran told AFP, saying that nighttime strikes were “so intense it felt like all of Tehran was shaking.”
The war has escalated into a regional conflagration as Tehran retaliates with attacks on Gulf states and virtually seals the critical Strait of Hormuz oil shipping lane. Iran claims it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, which previously accounted for a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and a fifth of liquefied natural gas shipments.
burs/dc/ser – AFP teams in Jerusalem, Sanaa, Washington, Tehran, Beirut, and Dubai
© 2024 AFP
