(AFP) – US President Donald Trump heads for a superpower summit with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping next week hoping the Iran war will not spoil the mood in Beijing. Trump will be expecting a lavish welcome at the high-stakes meeting, which he delayed in March because of the Middle East conflict. But the war will still loom large over his first visit to China since 2017, which is supposed to focus on easing tensions over trade and Taiwan between the world’s largest economies. Trump said the two leaders would discuss the issue and that Xi had been “very respectful” over Iran. Yet with Trump desperately seeking a deal to end the war before he lands in Beijing, China may seek to use his weakened position to extract concessions on key issues. “The reality is that right now, Iran is critical for the US and the Chinese know that,” said Edgard Kagan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
– ‘Big, fat hug’ – The world will be closely watching the Trump-Xi summit, but uncertainty over the timing and a lack of preparation mean deliverables are likely to be limited. For a US president obsessed with the idea of Great Power diplomacy, the main priority during the May 14-15 visit will be visuals of him being feted by a strongman fellow leader. Trump, 79, has repeatedly talked up his “very good relationship” with Xi, 72, whom he met in South Korea last October, even saying the Chinese leader will give him a “big, fat hug” over Iran. He will also hope to come away from the summit with big business deals as he looks to midterm elections in which Republicans face a hammering over high oil prices from the Iran war. While some industry leaders say invitations have still not formally gone out, Trump’s administration plans to invite CEOs from companies including Apple, Exxon, Nvidia, and Boeing, Semafor reported, with talk of a big Boeing deal in the offing. Trump will also be hoping to bring back deals on AI, critical minerals, and fentanyl.
One solid result that China in particular hopes for could be an extension of the fragile year-long trade truce that Trump and Xi agreed on in South Korea in October. China has, however, shown that it is still ready to respond to Washington, saying on May 2 that it would not comply with US sanctions against firms targeted over Iranian oil transactions. “It appears that the truce is not as strong as we were hoping,” Sean Stein, president of the US-China Business Council, told AFP.
– ‘A lot of leverage’ – Communist-run China will meanwhile be looking for stability in a Trump-roiled world, and to play for time in the knowledge that the volatile US leader is on his second and final term in office. Beijing is also likely to use Trump’s weakened position to its advantage where it can. “There’s actually a lot of leverage there that Beijing could use,” said Patricia Kim, a senior foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “Trump is looking for a win, right? I mean, he hasn’t had much wins in recent weeks with the war in Iran going on.”
Taiwan could be one area in particular where Xi may try to extract concessions, analysts say — for example on arms sales to the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own. Trump has been known to go off-script on the thorny topic before and allies in the region who fear an assertive China will be closely watching for signs of US wavering. At the same time, Beijing is likely to play up to Trump’s love of pomp and flattery, knowing that a slighted and angry Trump would cause trouble. But the Chinese will try to wash their hands of any involvement in the war on its ally Iran and deflect pressure from Trump during the meeting with Xi. Beijing’s hosting of Iran’s foreign minister this week was “a sign that they realize this is coming down the pike,” said Kagan from CSIS. – Danny KEMP
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