(AFP) – President Donald Trump’s second term has been a wild ride, but his last two years in power could be wilder still if Republicans lose control of Congress in Tuesday’s US midterm elections. From renewed military action against Iran to election challenges and fightbacks against Democratic investigations, Trump’s post-midterms playbook could involve disruption on all fronts. Analysts warn that Trump as a “lame duck” president could be the most vengeful Trump of all.
“I’m skeptical that President Trump will go quiet into that good night,” Peter Loge, director of George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs, told AFP. “There is nothing in history that says he will say ‘I’ve been beaten, my time is over.’ Every time Trump has been backed into a corner, he has shouted more and come out fighting.”
– Vetoes and vengeance –
Trump has always viewed himself as a fighter. He has been clear he will take the same approach if Democrats win one or both chambers of Congress. “If we didn’t win, I veto everything” in any Democratic legislative agenda, Trump told the New York Post. The White House says it is also ready to fight back against whatever investigations — or impeachment proceedings — Democrats throw at them. “They’ll probably go after me, and I’ll go after them,” Trump said in a Time magazine interview. Trump could even direct the Justice Department to investigate Democrats who are probing him. Trump, who baselessly disputed his 2020 presidential election loss, could also interfere in the midterms by challenging counts or delaying the certification of disputed races.
– Iran –
Foreign policy is the one area in which lame-duck US presidents still have wide-ranging powers. Trump may renew large-scale military operations against Iran, although he appeared to indicate on the eve of the midterms that fresh talks could produce a deal. “I don’t think he wants his legacy to be a warmonger. He wants his legacy to have left America stronger,” Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution told AFP. Speculation has swirled that Trump could fire Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth as the Iran war drags on — a familiar move for a president who never likes to take the blame.
– Ukraine, detente and trade –
Trump loves to think of himself as a master of peace deals and is likely to continue to push Ukraine to agree to a settlement with Russia. Fresh trilateral talks are set for next week. At the same time, Trump will continue to seek detente with the leaders he views as his great power equals — Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The three will potentially meet at a summit in China later this month. The US is also likely to continue its retrenchment from some of its NATO and other Western allies — and may even accelerate it, said Hass of the Brookings Institution. On trade, however, Trump would likely remain “unrelentingly active,” as shown by his recent hostility towards Canada, Hass said.
– Staying relevant for 2028? –
Trump loves being the center of attention and is unlikely to relish the spotlight turning towards potential successors in the 2028 US presidential election. Trump — who hosted the reality television show “The Apprentice” — has been notably coy about backing either Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio for the top job. But Trump has largely stopped dropping hints at running for a constitutionally-barred third term. Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University and author of “Great American Presidents: The Twelve Who Transformed the Nation,” said Trump would certainly “keep the focus on himself by being the kingmaker.”
– Monuments to himself –
Like other people getting ready for retirement, Trump may choose to focus on home improvement. In his closing midterms speech, Trump barely mentioned policy and instead talked about his renovation of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and other plans to beautify Washington. Trump has openly expressed a desire to stamp his own physical mark on Washington because he fears that others will not do it for him. “We have a lot of great things planned for Washington,” he said at the Reflecting Pool on Monday.
– Danny KEMP
© 2024 AFP
