Caracas (AFP) – With an ill-disciplined military and an outdated arsenal, Venezuela would be at a serious disadvantage in the event of an American invasion, experts say. President Nicolas Maduro has declared his country prepared for “a period of armed struggle in defense of the national territory” in the eventuality — widely deemed unlikely — of a US attack.
But defeating the world’s mightiest military would be an “impossible” endeavor, said a retired Venezuelan general who spoke to AFP on condition of anonymity amid rising tension caused by a US deployment of warships in the south Caribbean. The economically troubled South American country has a ragtag collection of Russian fighter jets, Iranian drones, old French tanks, and a German submarine, as well as an estimated 340,000-odd men and women in arms.
Venezuela possesses 15 F16 fighter jets purchased from the United States in the 1980s, 173 French AMX-13 tanks, 78 British tanks, and a Sabalo submarine acquired from Germany in 1973. It has one operational Italian frigate; nine coastal patrol vessels, 25 armed speedboats, and three landing vessels for 12 tanks and 200 personnel. In the 2000s, the country used the windfall from an oil boom to spend billions on its military under Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez.
From Russia, it acquired 23 fighter jets, eight helicopters, 12 anti-aircraft missiles, and 44 surface-to-air missile systems between 2006 and 2011 for an $11 billion price tag, according to Evan Ellis of the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. More recently, under Western sanctions since 2017, Caracas also bought eight Iranian Mohajer drones.
“The problem is that if they are not coordinated, those military systems are useless,” said the general, who held several high-ranking positions during his career. “The Armed Forces do not train collectively to use all these land, air, and sea elements. Coordinating that without prior exercises complicates the command of a complex operation.” The general also highlighted high levels of desertion and low recruitment rates. “Morale is far below what is expected for a conflict situation,” he said.
Maduro claims Venezuela has more than eight million militia members and reservists — equivalent to about a third of the population. Analysts say the figure is unrealistic. The International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates the force at 123,000 soldiers, 220,000 militia — a civilian arm of the military — and 8,000 reservists. The economic collapse that saw an 80 percent drop in Venezuela’s GDP under Maduro, who took over from Chavez in 2013, also hit the military even though it is one of Maduro’s main sources of support.
Military spending dropped to $3.9 billion dollars in 2023, according to the International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), from a record $6.2 billion in 2013. Venezuela has petitioned the United Nations to intervene in what it has called a US threat to the country.
On Wednesday, Caracas said the United States had “murdered 11 people without due process” after President Donald Trump announced US forces had killed “narcoterrorists” in a strike on a boat transporting drugs. Analysts have told AFP the US Caribbean deployment, which it labeled an anti-drug operation, was likely a show of force to put pressure on Maduro, whom it accuses of leading a drug cartel and whose last two reelections it does not recognize.
Maduro fears he is the target of a regime change maneuver, but the International Crisis Group said in a report this week that “the task force dispatched to the vicinity of Venezuela is a fraction of what would be required for a full-scale intervention.”
© 2024 AFP
