(AFP) – Israel and Iran exchanged more missile fire Monday as concerns that the United States might escalate the Middle East conflict by launching ground raids against the Islamic Republic’s Gulf islands sent oil prices soaring. Iran also launched new strikes on a water desalination plant in Kuwait, after its own electrical facilities came under attack at the weekend, cutting power to parts of Tehran. Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted five ballistic missiles.
The war has inflicted havoc on the global economy, with fuel shortages across much of Asia, stock markets in turmoil, and oil prices soaring — the main U.S. benchmark rising past $100 a barrel and UK-traded Brent up sharply and trading close to $117. With economies already reeling from recent energy price rises, and U.S. President Donald Trump openly mulling a military operation to seize Iran’s main export terminal, market experts warned that any U.S. ground operation or wider Iranian retaliation could send oil prices to historic highs.
“If the U.S. were to launch a ground invasion of Iran, possibly taking Kharg Island, or if Tehran were to intensify retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure or fully close the Strait, projections of $200 bbl oil will not be an otherworldly supposition anymore,” analyst Tamas Varga of PVM Energy said. Oil has never cost more than $150 a barrel, last hitting record highs during the July 2008 commodity boom, but the global benchmark Brent crude has risen in price by nearly 60 percent since the start of the war, and the U.S. standard WTI by more than half.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and could seize the export hub of Kharg Island, comparing this to his raid on Venezuela, where the U.S. plans to control the oil industry following the capture of leader Nicolas Maduro in January. But the U.S. leader nevertheless expressed confidence that there would soon be a negotiated end to the conflict, as Pakistan hosted regional foreign ministers for talks on the crisis.
As Israel pressed its offensive against Iran-backed Hezbollah in south Lebanon — hitting, an official told AFP, an army checkpoint and killing at least one Lebanese soldier — Indonesia confirmed Monday one of its peacekeepers was killed after the UN force said a projectile hit one of its positions. Separately, the Israeli military said a soldier was killed on Sunday in combat in southern Lebanon, bringing to six the number of troops killed since fighting with Hezbollah began this month.
On the ground, there appeared to be no let-up in hostilities. Israel said its air defense batteries responded to “missiles launched from Iran,” after earlier announcing it was striking “terror regime military infrastructure across Tehran.” On the diplomatic front, Pakistan — acting as a go-between for Washington and Tehran — hosted foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt in Islamabad for talks on the crisis. Pakistan Foreign Minister Dar said the visiting diplomats had discussed how to “bring an early and permanent end to the war.”
He said Iran and the United States had expressed “confidence in Pakistan to facilitate the talks” and that he had spoken to his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi as well as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and other foreign ministers who also backed the idea. Nevertheless, the speaker of Iran’s parliament has accused Washington of using diplomacy as a smoke screen. Despite making diplomatic overtures, including proposing a 15-point plan to end the war, the United States has also been sending more military assets into the region, including an amphibious assault ship carrying 3,500 Marines.
Iran confirmed that an Israeli strike last week had killed the commander of the naval force of the Revolutionary Guards, Alireza Tangsiri, who Israel had declared was the officer directly responsible for Tehran’s operation to block the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic. The weeks of strikes have also taken a heavy toll on ordinary people in Iran. “I miss a peaceful night’s sleep,” an artist in Tehran told AFP, saying night-time strikes were “so intense it felt like all of Tehran was shaking.”
The war has escalated into a regional conflagration as Tehran retaliates with attacks on Gulf states and virtually seals the critical Strait of Hormuz oil shipping lane. Iran says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, which previously accounted for a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and a fifth of liquefied natural gas shipments, to vessels from hostile nations.
burs/dc/ser – AFP teams in Jerusalem, Sanaa, Washington, Tehran, Beirut, and Dubai.
© 2024 AFP
