(AFP) – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s brash campaign posters are still up on Israeli public buses — images of him, US President Donald Trump and soaring warjets that laud the two leaders attacking Iran together. Neither is now advertising the state of the two countries’ alliance. A week after an inconclusive election for Netanyahu, Americans overwhelmingly rejected Trump and chose a Congress led by Democrats who want a tougher approach to Israel, whether on Iran, Gaza or settler violence in the occupied West Bank.
The back-to-back elections look to many observers like a turning point, with Israel no longer able to take for granted the cover of the world’s most powerful country. “This is a new era. The confluence of the Gaza war and the war with Iran have really changed how mainstream Americans — not people particularly concerned with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — see Israel,” said Yael Sternhell, an expert on the United States at Tel Aviv University.
Vice President JD Vance, assessing why his Republicans fared poorly, listed four ways to bring voters back, including ending the Iran war and changing “our relationship with Israel”. Trump did not disagree. Just as voting was underway Tuesday, Trump said he had agreed with Netanyahu to end the $3.8 billion in annual US military aid to Israel by the end of this year, explicitly tying the decision to the US political mood. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister who has served on and off for nearly two decades, had eagerly sought Trump’s endorsement but also acknowledged his country’s growing isolation.
In the final days of the campaign, he suggested Israel turn to cryptocurrencies to circumvent international sanctions he expected would intensify. Netanyahu has not commented on the US election or Trump’s aid remarks. Amit Segal, a journalist known for his proximity to Netanyahu, posted that the political situation in the United States marked a “catastrophe” for Israel.
– Can Eisenkot restore the alliance? –
Opposition contender Gadi Eisenkot, who is trying to cobble together a coalition to oust Netanyahu, has cast himself as capable of repairing relations. In an English-language statement, the former military chief said he believed in “liberal values” and also wanted to work “closely and constructively” with Trump. Yair Golan, the main left-wing leader inside Eisenkot’s bloc, called for Israel to restore a bipartisan approach destroyed by Netanyahu who he said promoted a “destructive Israeli narrative of eternal war and authoritarian rule”.
Netanyahu boasted in his campaign about standing up to Democratic presidents including Barack Obama, who remains a hero for many Democrats. Netanyahu openly aligned with Republicans a decade ago to attack Obama’s diplomacy on Iran. “Netanyahu certainly rubs Democrats the wrong way and has made every effort to alienate them,” Sternhell said. “But Eisenkot can’t just be a nicer man to receive a softer approach from this new Congress,” she added. “He’s going to need new policies.”
She said Eisenkot would likely enjoy Israeli public support for cracking down on extremist settlers, who have attacked Palestinians in the West Bank with virtual impunity. But Israel has shifted to the right, with wide initial support for the Gaza war.
– Broadening criticism of Israel –
The new Congress will include progressive Democrats such as Abdul El-Sayed, the first Muslim elected to the Senate, who describe the devastation in Gaza as genocide, an assertion rejected by Israel. Netanyahu “made a bet not only on the Republicans but almost personally on Trump”, said Eli Kowaz, senior policy director of the Economic Cooperation Foundation, an Israeli think tank that backs a two-state solution with the Palestinians. “These results show that bet had an expiry date,” Kowaz said. “Also, for the first time, really, I think there’s a realisation that it isn’t only about the Democrats. It’s a problem with the relationship with America.”
Without US assistance, Israel still has its own major arms industry and retains a clear edge fighting non-state actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah, said Ehud Eilam, a former researcher for the Israeli defence ministry. But he said Israel would need to rely more on cheaper artillery or non-sophisticated bombs, further increasing risks of civilian casualties that have enraged international opinion. “Israel can adjust to a new strategic reality of losing much and even all US military aid, but it will be tough for Israel. It will require Israel to consider hard choices such as taking huge loans or raising taxes,” Eilam said.
Kowaz said that Eisenkot, aware of politics in Washington, was trying to show he is interested in regional stability and strategic agreements and not just “an indefinite state of war”. “He is definitely laying out a different vision for Israel’s relationship with the United States.”
– Shaun Tandon
© 2024 AFP
