(AFP) – What’s more volatile than President Donald Trump? The answer may be a lame duck Donald Trump after the US midterm elections. The 80-year-old billionaire faces a bruising final two years in the White House if Republicans lose control of Congress in the November 3 polls amid voter anger over the Iran war and soaring prices. Investigations and a possible third impeachment would loom as his Democratic foes seek revenge. The president who loves to boast of his power would find much of it stymied. But Trump, with his back to the wall, could cause major upheaval, from revenge at home to wars abroad – and influencing the race to be his successor in 2028.
“I don’t think he is going to go out with a whimper, he’s going to try to go out with a bang,” said Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University and author of “Great American Presidents: The Twelve Who Transformed the Nation.” “He can’t stand not being the center of attention. So this may spark him to be even more aggressive,” Lichtman told AFP.
– ‘Kingmaker’ –
US presidents are often punished in midterm elections, weakening their party in Congress and leaving them with the dreaded lame duck epithet as their power wanes towards the end. But if Republicans lose the House of Representatives as expected – and possibly the Senate too – Trump will find himself in a peculiarly precarious position as Democrats probe alleged corruption or abuse of power. Trump has already signaled he will take his usual combative approach. “They’ll probably go after me, and I’ll go after them,” Trump said in a Time Magazine interview published this week.
“I think he’s going to be in attack mode,” Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution told AFP. First of all, Trump baselessly disputed his 2020 presidential election loss to Joe Biden, and it is “entirely possible” he could claim irregularities in the midterms as well, said Hass. Then, Trump could direct the US Department of Justice to investigate leading Democrats probing him, in the same way that a number of his opponents have found themselves facing legal action.
In the longer term, Trump sometimes hints at running for a constitutionally-barred third term in the White House, even wearing a “Trump 2028” hat at a gala media dinner in July. Lichtman said talk of a third term was to “stay relevant,” but added that Trump would certainly “keep the focus on himself by being the kingmaker” for the Republican nomination. Trump – who hosted the television show “The Apprentice” in which he famously uttered the catchphrase “you’re fired” – has been notably coy about backing either Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio for the top job. “I assume he’ll want to keep the suspense,” said Hass. “Who’s going to watch the show if it’s already been predetermined who’s the winner?”
– ‘Unrelentingly active’ –
Outgoing US presidents have often doubled down on foreign policy in the waning days of their terms, as it’s the area in which they have the most power. Trump recently said he may resume bombing Iran after the midterms, but prolonging a quagmire that his MAGA base hates could be politically and militarily risky. “You could make the argument that he’ll let it rip, but I don’t think he wants his legacy to be a warmonger. He wants his legacy to have left America stronger,” said Hass, who served in the National Security Council under President Barack Obama.
Hass expected Trump to continue the US pullback from some of its western allies while maintaining detente with authoritarian Russia and China and keeping a focus on Latin America. On trade, however, Trump would likely remain “unrelentingly active,” as shown by his recent hostility towards Canada, Hass said. Trump, like many other soon-to-be retirees, ultimately may be more interested in a little home improvement. The real estate tycoon appears increasingly obsessed by his construction projects at the White House, such as his new ballroom and helipad.
For Trump, stamping his mark on Washington in granite and concrete may be the greatest legacy of all. “I love doing it,” Trump said during a recent event at the White House, “because that’s what I did my whole life.”
– Danny KEMP
© 2024 AFP
