Washington (United States) (AFP) – Donald Trump can claim a diplomatic victory after reaching an agreement with Iran to end the war in the Middle East, but numerous pitfalls remain and the US president has lost political capital. The cautious reception to the Sunday announcement of the memorandum of understanding with Iran — scheduled to be signed in Geneva on Friday — reflects prevailing skepticism at a time when the war is unpopular due to the soaring oil prices and inflation it has caused.
The deal ends nearly four months of conflict, paving the way for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions. It effectively extends the current ceasefire by 60 days and provides for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic artery for oil and gas shipments — before the start of what promise to be extremely sensitive negotiations. Launched on February 28 by the United States and Israel, the war has set the Middle East on fire and caused thousands of deaths — mainly in Iran and Lebanon — and destabilized global trade. Thirteen US troops were also killed during the conflict.
Trump, who initially said the war would last four to six weeks, has faced mounting pressure at home to extricate the United States from the conflict ahead of midterm elections in November. While close allies immediately hailed him as the “president of peace,” reactions have been mixed, even within his Republican party. “I am somewhat concerned that Iran’s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming,” said Republican Senator Lindsay Graham, a staunch opponent of Tehran, adding: “Any nuclear deal with Iran will be sent to Congress for review and a vote.”
Senator John Cornyn, another Republican, reposted a message on X from conservative commentator Pastor John Hagee that said: “No deal is better than a bad deal.” Senator Chris Murphy, a member of the opposition Democrats, questioned whether a final agreement will be reached. “But if there is, two things will be true at the same time: a) It’s essentially surrender to Iran. b) We should be glad about it, because every day this insane, illegal war continues, we get weaker,” he said.
– ‘Not the final word’ –
Senior Trump administration officials have sought to defend the deal, which Washington ostensibly launched with the aim of preventing Iran from eventually acquiring a nuclear weapon. US Vice President JD Vance said Monday on ABC’s “Good Morning America” that once the text is released, “everybody will see…that Iran doesn’t get a dime of money unless they perform their obligations.”
Larry Sabato, a political scientist and University of Virginia professor, said that “this is not the final word, they have loads of details to argue over, maybe even for years.” “This was a completely unnecessary war that has accomplished very little and cost a lot,” Sabato told AFP. He pointed out that Trump — whose approval ratings are at an all-time low — has lost political capital, including within the Republican-controlled Congress and among supporters.
As for whether a new deal would effectively amount to a return to the original 2015 agreement that president Barack Obama negotiated and Trump tore up during his first term, that question remains unanswered. Obama, a Democrat, said on ABC’s “This Week” that “it is doubtful that any agreement that arises is going to be significantly different or a significant improvement from the deal that we had in the first place.” The agreement “worked for a long stretch of time before” Trump pulled out, he said.
For Wendy Sherman, one of the main negotiators of the 2015 deal, “this probably will turn out somewhat similar.” But “we’re in a very different place, however, because we did not have virtually 1,000 pounds of 60-percent highly enriched uranium, which is quite concerning, nor all of the other problems,” she told ABC’s Martha Raddatz. “I can assure you, they will not get all of this done in 60 days,” Sherman added.
© 2024 AFP
