(AFP) – Americans vote on November 3 in midterm elections that will decide whether President Donald Trump’s Republicans retain control of Congress or spend the final two years of his term confronting Democratic majorities. High living costs, the war with Iran, and Trump’s poor approval ratings have helped Democrats expand the electoral map, with unusually tight contests even in Republican strongholds. But polling errors, redrawn districts, and record campaign spending make the outcome uncertain.
– The arithmetic – Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the upper chamber of Congress, as a 50-50 tie would leave Republicans in charge through Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are contested. It is currently made up of 218 Republicans and one Republican-aligned independent, 214 Democrats, and two vacancies. Democrats need at least 218 seats in the lower chamber to clinch a majority in the new session.
– Senate: eight battlegrounds – North Carolina: The state’s Democratic ex-governor Roy Cooper faces Republican operative Michael Whatley in a bid to flip the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Thom Tillis, a vocal Republican Trump critic. Strong polling for Cooper has prompted both parties to shift some spending elsewhere, but the contest remains key for Democrats. Texas: Democrat James Talarico, a Christian progressive, faces Trump-backed state Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose controversies have helped turn a longtime Republican stronghold into a closely watched contest. Paxton retains a loyal conservative following and enormous outside financial support.
Ohio: Former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown seeks a comeback against Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace Vance when he became vice president. Among the country’s most expensive races, it’s also a test of whether economic discontent can shift a state that has moved sharply rightward. Maine: Republican Susan Collins faces former state Senate leader Troy Jackson. She has repeatedly survived difficult elections in a state that votes Democratic for president. Alaska: Former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola challenges Republican Daniel Sullivan. Her strong standing among voters has made another Trump-voting state unexpectedly competitive.
Iowa: Republican congresswoman Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek compete for retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst’s seat, while soaring agricultural and energy costs are prominent issues. Kansas: Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton is challenging Republican Roger Marshall in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. Tight polling has prompted Trump to campaign for Marshall. Michigan: An important Republican pickup opportunity pits former congressman Mike Rogers against progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, to fill the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters.
– House: watch the suburbs – New York’s 17th district: Republican Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley in a Hudson Valley seat won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Nebraska’s 2nd: Republican Don Bacon’s retirement leaves a competitive Omaha-area seat contested by Republican Brinker Harding and Democrat Denise Powell. Pennsylvania: Republican incumbents Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan, and Scott Perry face closely watched Democratic challenges. Nearby New Jersey’s 7th district, where Rebecca Bennett challenges Republican Tom Kean Jr, is also in play. Virginia’s 2nd: Democrat Elaine Luria seeks to reclaim the coastal seat she lost to Republican Jennifer Kiggans in 2022. Iowa: Three Republican-held districts in the state’s east and center could provide an early indication of whether Democrats are making broad gains.
– Signs of a wave? – For an indication of the scale of any Democratic advance, watch two Republican-held House districts in Virginia: the 1st, where Shannon Taylor challenges Robert Wittman, and the 5th, where former congressman Tom Perriello wants to unseat John McGuire. A Democratic gain in Kentucky’s Republican-leaning 6th district, or unexpected defeats for Republicans in Florida’s 13th and Wisconsin’s 1st, would likewise signal a particularly broad electoral swing. Conversely, Democrats face dangers of their own in redrawn districts, including Alabama’s 2nd, where Shomari Figures is defending his seat, and Texas’s 34th, where Vicente Gonzalez faces Republican Eric Flores. – Frankie TAGGART
© 2024 AFP
